The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) released its Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return on 21 October. It says the world can no longer avoid crossing the 1.5°C warming limit. The aim now is to keep the overshoot as small and as short as possible.
On the "lowest possible overshoot" path, warming peaks at about 1.7–1.8°C around mid-century. It then has roughly a 50% chance of falling back to 1.5°C by 2100. For that, global greenhouse gas emissions must fall 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, compared with 2025 levels. Countries' current climate pledges (NDCs) would deliver only 5–8% by 2030.
Under current policies, warming could reach 2.8°C this century. If every NDC is fully met, it would be about 2.6°C. The path back would also mean removing and storing about 320 gigatonnes of CO₂ this century. On the positive side, renewable power capacity has grown about three times faster than expected since the Paris Agreement. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said: "Overshoot is not surrender."
Why it matters for Indian companies
Stricter national targets after COP31 are likely to bring tighter emission disclosure and transition-plan expectations through BRSR and global supply chains.
Source: UNEP · 2026-10-21